“Will Bitcoin go back up” and other questions on Bitcoin’s future

Bitcoin price started to grow recently and there is a slight trend for recovery after the January-2018 market crash. This is how the BTC price chart looks at the time of writing:

bitcoin future current prices july 16 2018

At the moment many of the early adopters and some in the general public wonder whether it’s a good time to get back into Bitcoin, whether Bitcoin will rise in price, and what to expect from the future. This post is a 6-months-later continuation of the more general forecast we released in January.

Bitcoin future. Is bitcoin dead?

Simple:

No, it’s not.

Detailed:

First, the technicalities. Here’s a list of charts that show Bitcoin is a living ecosystem. The activity of the network runs as it always has:

1) Average number of transactions per block in the past 180 days:

average-number-of-transactions-per-block

source

(note that a lot of transactions are batched, so there are way more actual parties exchanging Bitcoin than there are transactions)

2) Bitcoin hash rate for the past 180 days:

bitcoin hash rate for the past 180 days

source

3) transaction volume excluding popular addresses:

bitcoin transaction volume excluding popular addresses

source

Second, the fundamentals. Bitcoin is pushed forward by a worldwide community of developers, and to them, the BTC/USD rate is nothing but a distraction. The amount of Bitcoin research never decreased – in fact, it skyrocketed. Here’s just a small peek at all the innovation that’s been making Bitcoin better in 2018:

Lightning – a second layer network for transacting with very low fees, off-chain payments. The progress here in several months was so impressive (high tx fees during the Bitcoin FOMO rush in December 2017). Here’s a couple of links that describe the current state of Lightning network:

current stats

visualized stats

map of channels

Schnorr – this new type of signatures is standardized to be added to Bitcoin code. The addition will allow users new ways to generate keys.

Decentralized exchanges and marketplaces – crucial for the Bitcoin’s resilience. HodlHodl starts gaining traction, while the older Paxful and LBC are working as well as they used to. Altcoin.io is releasing more and more impressive news, being a decentralized platform that facilitates atomic swaps between blockchains.

Regulation & Wall Street is not falling behind all tech progress. There are movements in ETF creation, NASDAQ statements, institutional investors interest and a lot more going on (check the Bitcoin news section of our site).

Will Bitcoin recover? Will Bitcoin go back up?

Many people are asking whether “Bitcoin will go back up” (to almost $20K/BTC, that is). Truth is, Bitcoin is likely to remain volatile for some time. However (not an investment advice), several factors indicate that the fundamentals are not going anywhere. Bitcoin will remain Bitcoin as long as there is Internet. In fact, there are works to keep Bitcoin operational even in case if the Internet is shut down.

Moreover, the Bitcoin halving is happening at some point in 2020. No one knows how the BTC/USD rate will react but chances are with decreased mining reward Bitcoin will cost more in fiat.

What’s the true Bitcoin value? Should you invest in bitcoin?

There is no “true” BTC/USD rate. At one point in Bitcoin’s history it’s going to be inflated, at another point it may be pressed down by regulation and hostile establishment actors.

It’s all up to you ultimately.

Obviously putting your life savings into Bitcoin and expecting huge returns is a dangerous gamble. Do not invest more than you are ready to lose.

However, I prefer to have some of the decentralized, censorship-resistant money that can be moved with very low fees without any bank or state supervision. The digital money that’s not getting printed at anyone’s whim and won’t ever exceed the amount of 21 million.

 

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