Auguring the 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections

U.S. elections are no strangers to prediction markets. Companies like PredictIt enable users and potential voters to take financial bets on politicians and the outcomes of political events. However, because traditional predictions markets are highly regulated, they are limited by the rules imposed on them. As an example, PredicIt limits the number of traders for a particular contract at 5,000 and limits the total investments made by a single trader on a particular contract at $850. 

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Augur, a decentralized prediction market, aims to remove all the limitations of traditional centralized prediction markets. In the midst of the 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections, The Block will run an experiment comparing the prediction markets results of PredictIt and Augur and the opinion poll analyses of FiveThirtyEight. We will update thispost every hour until the end of the elections to see just how accurate these prediction markets are. The Block will monitor the two most active midterm-themed markets on Augur:

  1. Which party will control the House after 2018 U.S. Midterm Election?
  2. Which party Will Control The US Senate After 2018 Midterms?

Latest Results

12:00PM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 74% Democrats
  • Senate control: 90% Republicans

Predicit:

  • House control: 74% Democrats
  • Senate control: 86% Republicans 

FiveThirtyEight:

  • House control: 87.9% Democrats
  • Senate control: 80.9% Republicans

11:00AM EST

Augur: 

  • House control: 74% Democrats
  • Senate control: 90% Republicans

Predicit:

  • House control: 73% Democrats
  • Senate control: 87% Republicans

FiveThirtyEight:

  • House control: 87.8% Democrats
  • Senate control: 81.1% Republicans

The post Auguring the 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections appeared first on The Block.


Auguring the 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections written by Steven Zheng @ https://www.theblockcrypto.com/2018/11/06/auguring-the-2018-u-s-midterm-elections/ November 6, 2018 Steven Zheng

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